Tag: finances

Money Matters: Multiples and Millions

I am so miffed at all the financial reports and advice that states how many millions-of-dollars a person needs to be comfortable, to retire, et. al. Giving actual dollar amounts is pretty dumb. Every life is different, every account has a different spend.

Instead, multiples matter more than millions. That is already the common factor when it comes to advice of emergency funds (1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12). I would have you make it a common factor of your financial planning!

Using actual dollars makes the rule-of-thumb calculations much harder than they need to be too. The commonly touted safe withdrawal rate of 4% for retirement (a term I will interchangeably use with financial independence)? Well, that 4% is the spend of one (1) year of living. And to figure out the wealth to support that withdrawal, we are told to take what we aim to spend per year in retirement, and divide by .04 – ick!

Rather, consider this: 4% is also one-twenty-fifth (4/100 = 1/25) of the total amount of expenses expected to keep in net wealth; flip that around (100/4) and that means 25x a year of expenses today suffices the 4% Rule!

And don’t get me started on how actual dollar figures change and decay (i.e. inflate) over time. Subjective and average numbers are not consistent, are not applicable to you nor I! The thief of joy is any figure that is not yours; get your own figures and your own confidence of how you are doing by standards lived by your reality.

So let’s talk more on multiples. We saw the common financial independence “4% Rule” is 25x a year’s cost; 5% (discussed as a more reasonable withdrawal, especially if looking to die with $0) is 20x (100/5); 6% Fat FIRE (live like a rockstar after work) is ~17x; etc.

Example: A person has spent about $60,000 in the last few years – they have a stable lifestyle they are content with and find enjoyment in. Cool. They feel safe with a tad more risk or vacation allowance than the 4% Rule, so opt to start enjoying financial freedom early with a 5% instead. That means, they will need 20x their spending in net wealth to secure their financial freedom.

$60,000 x (100/5) = $60,000 x 20 = $1,200,000 needed after debt

Or maybe they want to wait to retire for 10 more years. With a stable lifestyle, they might expect a 3% inflation to catch up after 10 years, so:

($60,000 x 1.03^10years) x (100/5) = ($60,000 x ~1.3439) x 20 = $1,612,680 needed after debt in 10 years to retire as planned

An easy formula too for figuring out bare-minimum wealth needs and more-than-enough hoarded (e.g. 17x [might make it work] to 33x expenses [any more is wasteful]). So long as we know a year’s typical expenses by having lived an authentic lifestyle, the rest is cake.*

Multiples offer more consistency, apply to a person’s unique situation, and are simpler napkin math that applies to 99% of people out there (I am being hyperbolic).

* How do we figure out expenses? The nitty gritty is for another post. I would suggest here to go through bank and credit card statements from the last few years for the full year (since things like insurance or car maintenance can jack-up by-month expenses). Getting these numbers in hand, I myself throw out plain averages – outlier years (lots of one-time costs or a long hiatus in the no-money-mountains) skew these pretty badly. Instead, either median (most common costs) or my preference of weighted averages (more recent years get counted more)** gives a clearer picture of what life spending has been like.

** E.g. You have 5 years of data. 5 years ago multiplies by 1, 4 years by 2, … last year by 5. Add all the multiplied results up, then divide by adding all the multiples up.

($ResultYear5 + $ResultYear4 + …) / (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) = $Results / 15 = Weighted Average Spend

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A shorty and hopefully a goodie.

I started my financial literacy when asking the Q from Tim Ferriss, “which of these, if done, would make all the rest easier or irrelevant?” That answer was and has been and might forever be money. It adheres to the principle of Ockham’s Razor, taking the simpler sufficing path. We have taken today the simpler path that will suffice for most general lifestyle targeting and financial independence freedom.

You don’t need millions, you need multiples. I do not think this misses the mark, so comment now or forever hold your peace 😁

Cheers to your freedom ~

Live Enough to Die With Zero

Die With Zero by Bill Perkins is one if not the top book of mine read in 2024. As a guy who has spent years coming to grips with finance, retirement, et. al, this one book changed my views of money fundamentally.

I hope Die With Zero will change your views too.

Will You Die With Zero?

The principles of the book are keen, yet they lack a tool to apply them to.

I made one to check if I would or could die with $0 left over in the bank. Cleaning that sheet up, here is a generic copy for you and your friends to check where you are now (money in, money out, net worth), where you are going (interest, growth), and how you too might live a life full enough to die with zero (life expectancy, retirement).

Make a copy to check it out yourself: Die With Zero Example

Remember, the goal is to live a full life so you can die with as close to $0 as possible – you can’t take it with you. Read the book for more excellent insight as regards to inheritance, lifestyles, and health!

Other Finance Heuristics

The above is a pretty plain tool, yet in an afternoon it can give insights to if a person is on the right saving and spending path.

It is certainly better than the over-simple “expenses x 25” (a 4% nest-egg withdraw rate estimate), “expenses x 33” (~3% withdraw), or “expenses x years-to-Social-Security” (an early retirement guess-timate).

That, or the “nothing is as good or bad as it seems, hedge 33%” (though this could shore up some extra security at end of life).

Let’s not forget the survival estimate using SS Social Security, which is “.7 x (years-to-SS x expenses + [end-of-life-age – age-to-start-SS] x SS-estimate)” – kinda icky.

If you really want to get into the weeds, spend a day with Finance Mentor or Projection Lab (I have no affiliation with either – I just like the apps). These go through details and life possibilities with much more advanced simulations, but they will not matter unless you are closer to or just had a major life event (e.g. divorce, lottery win, settlement, child, vast cost-of-living change, etc.).

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Comment what you think about the tool. Do all or most of these calculations show you have secured your future? Great! Count yourself freed from need – these tools exist to work for you, not you to exist to work.

Cheers to you making it through the finish line while making a grand time of it ~

Ready to Put Out the FIRE

FIRE: Financial Independence, Retire Early (or whenever)

I have been on the FIRE path for years. It has defined major decisions in my life and a plethora of choices ranging from jobs to travel to relationships. (Checkout the blog for all I have said on the matter.)

The times be a-changin’, my passions cooled… I may be ready to put out the FIRE.

Where FIRE Got Us

FIRE has fit me for how it answered the life question “what makes all else easier or unnecessary?” Financial Independence – breaking the shackles of debt from living – is the key, is the ’42’, for me. Looking around, it is the key for so many in the world.

Cutting costs has led me to an objectively better life of freedom, flexibility, and self-knowledge of what materials and activities are actually important:

  • Through a life of minimalism I can move all I own in a single personal vehicle.
  • I know the foods that both fuel and bring me joy day in and out.
  • Without little things to distract me, I have more time for friends, physical health, learning, and creating.
  • To optimize my net worth, I understand how to manage my psyche along with the “game” of society and finance as a whole.
  • Discipline is a lifelong practice, yet I can take a sense of pride in how far I have come in regards to my impulses and expectations and growth.
  • I fear virtually no ill or ailment – the bed I have made for myself can take very severe falls.

Being on fire for FIRE, I look towards hitting the milestones of FI *soon*.

Dowsing the Flames

But that “Retire Early” piece… One of the best suggestions on the FIRE scene is to take mini-retirements – from a month to a year or so – to try out that life. Find something to retire towards rather than retire from corporate work life.

See, I have tried that. In a way. A few ways.

Whether over times of unemployment or taking long vacations, I find myself hitting the same patterns:

  • Start projects again: Writing, roleplaying games, game mods, reconnect with friends, hike, travel, get involved in extracurriculars, playing a video game or two (the least likely activity to happen), and a few other things.
  • Rebalance finances and calculate how long a hiatus I can take in.
  • Experiment with alt income sources; these ultimately fizzle as I realize it is more optimal to either work “for the Man” or to take the time off.
  • Make great strides in the projects, but stop before crossing the finish line. (I suck in bringing things to market – I clearly am no entrepreneur.)
  • Experience encroaching loneliness as no-one else seems to be at the “leisure” time of their life.
  • Chastise myself for working even longer hours for myself rather than learn how to rest.
  • Begin to go stir-crazy as I repeat the patterns above, battling with a sense of FOMO as salaried income would further cut chunks out from under the ol’ FIRE milestone dates.

This can last up to six months.

Then the applications begin, the entertaining of inquisitive software recruiters, the prioritizing of coding and refreshing social-manipulation skills (i.e. interview performances).

And the cycle continues.

It makes me feel I will not retire anytime soon. That I am not ready for it without some serious self-work. In the meantime, it would be unfair to claim I am on FIRE.

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FIRE has been a useful guide. A maker of the person typing this out now. Yet just as a useful hiking stick no longer matches the terrain ahead – has not for a while – I can let to down with the sincerest of “thank yous” for getting me this far. I may find something else that sparks joy.

As I have grown over the years to come to better understand the world and myself, I can only expect that spark will return.

As I am ready to put out the FIRE of my life, how about you? Where have you pivoted in life, either from experience or necessity? Any learnings for the guy who is looking to replace his rudder?

Lemme know. Wherever your path goes, take care. Cheers to our journeys crossing in fair weather ~

#PaidMe2023

Restarting the tradition that began as a hashtag in the summer of 2020, I am back to share with you my data once again!

All the below are estimates using free online resources. Your mileage may vary.

The Data

THP – Take Home Pay (assuming only income taxes without contributions apply)
Inf – Inflation (not used for the year of writing, ’23)
CoL – THP normalized to national Cost of Living

Senior Software Engineer, L3
Base Pay: $175,000
THP (after effective tax of 32.54%): $118,050
CoL: $71,545 (THP / location’s decimal-percentage CoL)
Aerospace Company
Westside Los Angeles Metro Area, CA

Excluding all stock, bonus, and other amenity info. Checkout Glassdoor (use an incognito browser) and levels.fyi for great value-add resources.

Takeaways

California income taxes suck. Guess that is why so many CA tech companies offer stock and options, those taxed at a different, i.e. lower, rate!

I haven’t experienced too harshly the cost of living change – housing nearly triples the national average, but Airbnb and fully-furnished month-to-month options are perhaps 100-150% vs 200% higher. Not to mention what would happen with a roommate(s)!

Regardless, take-home pushes me ever closer to financial independence FI while allowing luxuries in some lifestyle choices (e.g. no need for roomies).

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That is it for this year! Checkout 2021’s data (skipped 2022 – the company gave no raises [I should be “appreciative” that the stock went up, which then proceeded to nosedive] before summer layoffs).

Wanna talk numbers? Would =adore= getting to hear! Curious about an offer or the non-base-pay bits left out of this post? Hit me up for a call!

It is dangerous to go out into the working world alone – I am hear for you. Until needed, I send you cheers in your pay and careers ~

Winds, How They Change

Salud! How goes?

Writing today to talk about change and what direction the proverbial winds are headed on my end.

Doing some soul searching in late January and early February, I needed to overcome a feeling of directionlessness. (Not a word, going to use it.)

Such feels are common when on sabbaticals and especially early retirement. Taking a bit of that myself, I had =loads= of fun in 2022 and did so, so much. (Just see the months of blog posts for the trove!)

Yet… Now I feel a bit aimless. What am I doing? How does it matter? Where can I be better?

Decisions

This blog is a resource for me as much as it is you. Coming back to a few posts (like when one needs to decide, how to do, and the Truth of Simplicity), I churn over all my interests, all my skills, and question what is my Needle, what actions move it.

I will be publishing a post about “focus” later, but suffice that it is what I must do. And what to focus on?

Financial Independence; Early or whenever Retirement – FIRE 🔥

The overarching goal. The goal of goals since at least 2017. And over the last year I had lost sight of my mountain peak. Now I and it are back.

Consequences

As I mount back into the saddle of labor to get that cheese and earn my daily bread, something cannot be had without an equal exchange for the time and attention and materiel required.

So I move to increase my wages – it is the slower, steadier, more assured path to perpetual security. Study, practice, and audacity – these are the watch words going into 2023’s Spring and Summer.

But at what cost?

Over the last couple of months, I have been big on bringing you my learnings and creations:

Roleplaying games and modules, patterns and rules of play, business and market studies, relationship building and maintenance, blogs and writing – all to name but a few topics.

In my private life I have picked back up on meditation, writing, workouts, climbing, yoga, walks and hikes, music concerts, meetups, running games of D&D, and field trips.

My endurance and range of ability is great – immense – yet my time and devoted attention are just too finite.

Everything is up for audit, for analysis. What does it bring me? What does it cost me? How is it moving me towards my mountain?

Now About You

The dust hasn’t settled yet on the ramifications here, so for certain I cannot say much. Maybe more come the goal post at month’s end, which is a while off yet.

For you, reader, my wind change may mean something. This blog is up for review. The length, frequency, and character of writing is on the block. Despite having a publication every week for 3-odd years, we cannot fall into the “sunk cost fallacy” – we must ask, “but what has it done for me lately?”

So it goes.

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I will not leave you out of the loop! I am absolutely ready to hear your suggestions and requests on what to do: What frequency works best for you, topics that hold interest, or what has stood out in blog posts past?

Mind, whatever remains in my sphere of influence will continue to be of the quality you have engaged with so far, if not more. Maybe.

Regardless of all, thank you for being along on these journeys with me. Are you doing well now that the first quarter of ’23 nears its close? I want to hear if the winds are strong or the course needs a change – cheers to your journey ~

All I Know About Business

All I knew about business was nil before the business study and review of 2022.

Now – after dozens of articles read and hours of education from books and virtual mentors – all I know about business comes down to a few key points. I share these with you to save your time and brainpower. Sound good?

Before going on: What doesn’t sound good is considering me or any of this as legal or financial advice. As this post mentions, go seek out the licensed and recognized professionals. Treat the below as the starting blocks on the tracks – up to you to run (and win) the race~

Before You Begin: Vision & Values

Note: Many folks would suggest getting ideas for business as the first thing before starting said business. That is junk. Ideas are cheaper than dirt and often less useful. Ideas and intentions are nothing – actions and executions are everything.

Before anything ought be done, the means of deciding direction for the business, the foundation of deciding how to decide, need to be reflected on. Getting this right filters ideas and efforts into what will “move the needle” and define what that needle even is.

Some less-tangible principles ought include:

  • Do not sell suffering.
  • Do not sell suffering! (So important, it lists twice!)
  • Competition is for chumps; fight unfair. (What are you willing to do or leverage?)

More solid tenants of putting together a business include:

  • Never choose the lowest offer nor the safest / more conservative route.
  • Find the missing services and underserved populations for open markets.
  • Listen to symptoms for they are valid. Curing causes is your service and product.

Use all of this to make a business plan that outlines the ‘thing’ to be sold.

The ways to make a business plan are plentiful, but I am a fan of the 5-page Servicemen’s Readjustment Act (“G.I. Bill”) that has served many millions who have served in the United States military forces over more than half a century. If your entire business model can’t be read in 15 minutes or less, rethink it.

Remove, Butcher, Reduce!

Simple concept here: FOCUS.

Doing too much – whether starting or maintaining a business – leads to disaster. A business or business owner doing too much does the work of dividing and conquering itself, work that ought to be left up to the competition.

Concentrating forces is an ageless tenant of armed conflict which applies directly to making and keeping gains in a hostile marketplace. This is valuable for both physical effort and psychological branding.

Think: The word “Coke” brings to mind soft drinks – its focus – though the business owns and operates much more. “Google” has become synonymous for online searching and got to that point well before Alphabet ever branched to other markets. Amazon was the best at selling books (then other media) online for years before branching outside literature to additional products and departments.

Niche down so the first and second place providers make up at least ~10% of the chosen market. Prove at least on paper the business is to be the #1 or #2 choice in the market.

Again with “competition is for chumps:” if you cannot be the best, best not bother!

Same applies to the owner – sometimes wearing a lot of hats is necessitated in an emergency. I might not go to a dentist for kidney surgery, but I would rely on their training in a pinch given a medical emergency!

So for anyone in the business, wearing too many hats is a division of attention and effort, the context switching a burden to the business. Therefore, owners (and businesses) must find what they are great at, do and only do that, and hire out or drop everything else.

Getting to the ‘Great At’

Glad to see my conclusions written on before apply here too.

What can the business be great at? Figure it with a few (or all) of these:

  • Use 80/20 (really, 90/10) lists of strengths.
  • Simplify – what makes all else unnecessary?
  • What gets the people in the business excited to work on indefinitely?
  • Name the thing that can be exponentially scalable and repeatable regardless of person (e.g. templates, automation, one-and-done products, standard operating procedures, etc.).

And perhaps the most important tidbit if the thing is truly great: not-to-do lists.

What is lame? Unexciting? What is the business and people in it actively bad at? If it does not jeopardize some mundane necessity of the business, delegate it to the outside or drop it entirely.

The bad and lame stuff is easy to avoid doing. What about the merely good? The trivially fun parts or areas that “should” be tackled? Warren Buffet has a famous exercise on making not-to-do lists:

Make a list of 25 goals / strengths / et. al, then circle the top / most important / greatest leverage 5 goals. Those 5 need a plan of action started on immediately. The other 20? DO NOT DO AT ANY COST. Avoid like the plague! At least until some of the primary things are accomplished and proven steady.

Right Butts, Right Seats

Finished Good to Great by Jim Collins before ’22’s end. Jim, others, and I agree: getting the right people into the business and onto the right tasks is required for successful business operation.

Hiring the right folks feeds into doing less: efficient people working on business-efficient tasks contributes to a virtuous circle of improvement.* Fewer people are required when only the business-best are kept in house while the sometimes-needed work is done elsewhere.

*Note: Every ‘thing’ done is done in support of the business’s operations (never just because of the business). Whether the thing is given for free to help build target audience trust, adds to a backlog of deployable things, eases the future making of things, or is sold immediately, it must contribute to progressing operations.

Though not exhaustive by any means, some folks here are those who ought be specialists doing only what they do best:

  • Technology / Programmers
  • Creatives / Artists / Writers
  • Financiers / Accountants / Sales
  • Attorneys / Policy Enforcers
  • Business Leaders / Public Faces

Depending on business needs, these specialists may only be needed occasionally so their seats should be hired out.

Out of all of the above, ‘Business Leaders,’ i.e. management, should be kept at the barest of minimums. Efficient people need less oversight: they find work, they do work, they deliver work, and they discipline themselves to keep being efficient every day. Traditional management is made redundant by having the right butts in the right seats.

Marketing Is King

Virtually no-one and no resource failed to mention the importance of marketing.

The short story is: Market. The long story: MARKET MARKET MARKET.

But how? An answer should be a different post since I loathe doing my own marketing (really, a massive weakness). Yet other folks offer their tidbits:

  • Out of sight, out of mind, and a business never wants to be out of mind.
  • Know the business target and their pains / aspirations; offer solutions frequently, some for free.
  • Have press kits (a repeatable, one-and-done process).
  • Network like a fiend; be everywhere.
  • Again, give at least 51% of value for free, but never fail to “ask for the order.”

Building a target audience means building loyalty. Giving resources (tools, a challenge to self-select) to the audience proves the business’s loyalty to them. If 1,000 true fans can be made excited for the business offer, the business will be just fine.

But always remember these two points: First impressions count, and, trust between two parties is like a string – once broken, it can be retied, but shall always have the knot in between them (parable paraphrase).

Cash Is King

Marketing still takes the bigger crown, yet it must pay tribute to cash.

Cash is payroll. Cash is product. Cash is service. Cash is survivability. Cash is the very lifeblood of the business. Cash is king.

If a business cannot survive, it is nothing. Thereby, a business must keep its cash and get more cash.

Keeping cash involves cutting costs. Between there only being only so much one can cut and needing to spend well enough to ensure the best people do not leave their seats, cutting costs is a poor business’s desperation that is too easily taken too far.

To get more cash, a few things help that we’ve covered before here (seeing that virtuous circle in action!):

  • Ask for everything (especially the order!).
  • Do not offer to pay before the price is set (heck, it might come free).
  • Spend another’s money – loans, pre-orders, subscriptions, and externalized-cost resources are primary tools in the cash belt.
  • Recurring revenue models trump single-purchase things every time – go get that subscription! Or, “give away razors to sell razor blades.”
  • Invest in good bookkeeping – paying less in taxes is not a goal, but can be a perk.

JUST DO IT

Make a plan. Act on it. Just do it. Today, immediately after reading this post. Go go go!

Pontificating about business is like an idea: Virtually worthless. A seed in the ground that bears neither shade nor fruit.

Really, ends make the means in business. And a business only gets to the end by starting now. Get the principles and plan together, complete the legal stuff of business creation, and get to it.

Running a business is a job. The owner an employee. This person is the bottom-rung employee. They will do the most great work, and the most trivial, unfun junk so that the right people can keep doing their business-add work.

The grind as the lowest totem on the pole will last, and it will last a while. General advice to new business owners: Do not give in until at least a year is past putting in those long days and weeks.

Review, Reflect, Inspect, Pivot

While launching this new thing of business, course correct along the way. Test prices and offers. Collect data point and metric possible on both the target audience and internal operations. Pause, review, and reflect on these findings.

Sometimes close inspection of the business and the market might require a pivot. This might be a new approach to the ‘thing’ of the business, or it might require a complete change of horse.

Examples: Big-box Walmart is putting an end to the dime store, the business’s core service? Best to ditch the dime stores in favor of the changing environment. Netflix is sending rented DVDs straight to the mailbox? Either Blockbuster needs to make a better offer for sending DVDs, change how or what it rents, or close shop.

Ultimately, a business must also consider what a fundamental end looks like – when to give up, when to sell, or when and if to grow after a year’s or decade’s diligence. General advice is to start now, but when to hang up the towel or venture forth from a well-established niche is up to the context and temperament of the business.

Last Bit of Business

In all this study, I came up with my own thoughts of things or picked up interesting notions along the way:

  • Envision success, failure, and an exit to anything, i.e. plan.
  • Remove those who would criticize a venture without a critique of how to make it work.
  • Obligations: Sleep is #1, work is #2, study and review #3, and leisure or other obligations #4 in the first year (#3 and #4 could be interchanged). If this cannot be afforded, re-evaluate if a business is the right choice for you at this time.
  • A business takes a long time to build, but no time to destroy.
  • For any business operator, forgive yourself for the lost opportunities spent on making the business come to fruition.

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That is all I know about business, folks.

Like any field of study, we could go so, so much deeper into the topic of business. If interested, there are great folks out there who have much better expertise than I in these things.

Wrote this post as a reference to my future self that – should I take the opportunity to get into business again – can save a bit of time. Any other points you would add that seem to be universals?

In the meantime, I hope these work as principles for you in your professional, personal, and social ventures! Cheers to your successes ~

BITS – Wealth and What to Buy

Money makes the world go round, right? How about the tools that money acquires and that acquire money?

Like everything else, the BITS roleplaying game system handles that. Here’s how:

The Tools That Brought Us Here

As the stellar game Mörk Borg puts it, “you are what you own.” I couldn’t agree more.

Equipment, the tools we use, is what separates us from the beasts. Yet, there is no need for these tools to be complex in their implementation when at a table among friends in play.

BITS keeps tools simple. Everything has an effect for the intended use or a retarding effect on what is being done. Effects reduce the barrier between action and outcome; retardation reduces the amount of effect.

That’s a lot of verbiage 😑 Some examples:

Consider combat: A weapon has an X amount of effect through violence. Armor reduces that effect by Y. The final effect would be X-Y.

Example: Armor has a retarding effect on violence done to the wearer.

Same goes for more utilitarian tools. Crowbar? Useful for breaking open locked doors. Shovel? Digging holes. Pick? Breaking rock. These things might have a special advantage in the situation, too.

You get the gist.

Yet, sometimes an object is used outside of its intended scope. In those cases, the tool has disadvantage for doing what is was never meant to. A butter knife could theoretically slay a dragon, but gosh-darn is that going to be a hard time!

Doing Things

Virtually all game experience revolves around conflict, and 9/10 times (no source; don’t @ me) that conflict will see a violent resolution.

When it comes to violence, every stick, sword, pistol, and whatever will have a 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, or 10 effect. I shouldn’t have to remind, but for those that need it spelled out: the effect of violence is the edging from construction and order to destruction and death. The states are abstracted, but relatable.

To rehash, the scale goes like this:

EffectSynonyms
1Minor. In hand-to-hand, something like a rock or weapon with a reach less than a forearm (knives, hatchets). A small caliber, such as a pistol.
2Moderate. A sword or battle axe, arrows. An assault rifle.
3Major. A blade requiring two hands for 100% use. Crossbow bolts. A machine gun.
4Mighty. Claymores, swung tree trunks, and huge mauls. A high-caliber weapon, personnel explosives.
6Massive. Siege weapons, cannons, bombs.
10Mega. Hellfire, cruise missiles.

Same for, say, making magic. A wand could have a minor effect of 1 that helps creating the magic, a rune tome 2, and a blessed staff 3. (More on that in the post about magic.)

Is this scale exact? No. It is simple, modular, and easily tweakable, as BITS is meant to be. But if I can help settle a question, leave a comment – I get to every one!

Carrying on:

Putting a Stop to Things

Protection from effect reduces the amount of effect. Protection ranges from nothing 0, light 1, medium 2, to heavy 3, with higher versions looking at 4, 6, and 10 (though 10 is essentially ‘plot armor’ and in use is a sign of bad game design [except if the point is to assault God]).

Example: A 2-effect sword strikes a 1-effect leather jerkin piece of light armor. The final effect is a detriment of 1 towards the jerkin-wearer’s life.

Simple!

A mention about shields: The best way BITS has found to handle a held shield vs. a worn piece of armor is to give advantage to the defender’s roll to dodge or block. Otherwise, just lend +1 to the shield’s use in defense. For further flavor, a shield can be smashed to pieces to prevent 100% of effect from an action, but this can only happen once and only in combat (e.g. no smashing shields to prevent harm from a great fall).

Show Me the Money

Wealth. Money. Moolah. Funds. Scratch. Gravy cheese currency cash coin treasure dough loot value capital.

It all means the same: the influence you have in society and over your own time when not using first-degree violence.

Now, there are a lot of different folks out there. Some folks like to see their wealth counted to the last coin; some folks like just to know they have enough for their needs and leisure.

Is BITS flexible enough to cater to all tastes?

You know that answer 😜 To prove:

#1 Bean Counting

Whether bags of coin or rolls of wadded bills, when piled high, they look great.

For those that like to count their money, they have an abstract-yet-significant amount of value. How significant?

That depends on how precious of a commodity money is.

For the extra-rare money games (1-2 pieces of treasure a session of play), set the value of an item equal to the amount of effect an item has. 2-effect sword? 2 bags of coin. 3-effect hunting rifle? 3 rolls of dollar bills. 1:1 effect-to-fat-stacks.

In modern-wealth terms, the #-effect could mean the # of zeros after the first digit an item costs. 10s, 100s, 1000s, etc.

For the more liberal money games (say, 2-12 treasure earned in play, all characters are likely to have at least 1 in their pockets), sum up to the effect as value. That means you add up all the effects to the current effect.

Example: A 4-effect item is worth 1+2+3+4=10 of a currency. 2-effect is 1+2=3.

#2 Wealth Class

For those looking to do less math and more play, wealth class is for them (and you, too).

Wealth class is the abstract level of influence a person is in society. It could be considered as follows:

ClassE.g.
0Poverty! Completely broke. Might beg for bread. Hard to count the unwashed masses, as they slip through the cracks of society.
1Lower. Peasantry and labor class. Can cover necessities, but barely. Food, poor housing. Hundreds of dollars in the bank, maybe. About the bottom 40-60% in society’s value hierarchy.
2Middle. Skilled and trader class. Can afford some leisure, but has to budget for it. Thousands of dollars available in the bank. 30-45% of the population.
3Upper. Overseer and mercantile class. Can look wealthy. Can be impulsive with leisure. Hundreds-of-thousands to low million in the bank. 20-30%.
4High. Inherited and aristocratic wealth. Rich. Want for nothing. Millions banked. 10-15%.
6Elite. Royalty, old-family, and monopoly wealth. What society dreams of being but could never sustain. Hundreds-of-millions. Top 1-4%.
10More money than God. Few if any good deeds done to get here. Do as they please. Cannot reasonably spend enough to reduce the class. Not generally known to the public, but members here come to know each other.

A class can buy anything of classes below it, no questions asked (within reason).

Buy things of the same class? Might need to roll – on a critical failure (e.g. 1 on a d6), the class reduces by 1 but the thing is yours.

Try to buy things above the class? Can maybe do 1 class above, but will reduce class by 1 or 2 guaranteed. Consult with the Game Moderator.

With bean counting, more beans means bigger numbers means better wealth. What about class?

With class, consider:

  • Gather treasure (or large enough paydays that went straight to savings) equal or more to the current class value, then spend that treasure to roll for a class increase at the end of, say, a month. Using d6, increase the wealth class by 1 if the roll is over the current wealth class – on a 1, decrease by 1 for some unforeseen expense or misjudgment on funds.

Example: Change wealth by gathering treasure/savings/windfalls equal to current wealth. Exchange that treasure to roll d6 (perhaps at the end of a month or so). Increase wealth by 1 if the roll is over current wealth; decrease by 1 if the roll is a 1.

What Is This Worth?

Shop keeps may buy things similar to their other wares at 1 level below the thing’s actual worth, 1 level above if selling.

Want to bargain? A successful Insight test (the ‘I’ in BITS) could get the price leveled to what it is supposed to be.

Example: A 2-effect sword will be sold to a merchant at the same rate as 1-effect, bought at 3-effect. Negotiate to make it a 2-effect cost.

Capitalism at work.

The above though fails to answer the question, “what is this worth?” Like everything else in BITS, it follows the 0, 1-4, 6, 10 pattern. A guide:

Value LevelWhat It Is
0Trash. Rubbish. Rags.
1Mundane. Everyday. Simple. Cabbages, toilet paper bundle, concert tickets.
2Middling. Required extra process. Prepared meal, handy labor, mediocre laptop.
3Uncommon purchase. Some haggling. Jewelry, performance computer, car, US health insurance.
4High quality. Fancy. Sports car, leisure boat, simple property, US medicine.
6Above and beyond. Rare. Complex property, large vessel, small plane.
10Exotic. One-of-a-kind. Especially unique. Companies, aircraft carriers.

A little give and take with the above will make for a great starting place in determining a thing’s value if not readily apparent. Cool?

Cool.

–

And that’s all I have for gear and wealth in BITS!

A familiar topic, I have tried posts before for making gear and giving a highlight to its use. Yet, the economy talk was little and, well, I am better now than before in understanding what makes BITS fun 🙂

I am sure more can and will be added. Super-effect where the value is multiplied by 10 or 100, repair costs, base materials vs. final product, etc. Adding more is always possible with BITS, though simplicity is always key – in that, less is more 😉

How do you like to handle ‘stuff’ and the stuff used to buy it in your games? I want to know! Comment about it and I’ll owe you one. For now, cheers to your day!

How to Price Your RPG

In general, games of all and every kind are not known as money makers.

For the niche of roleplaying games, it is paramount you know how to price your RPG if ever to even get the game played, let alone see a cent.

To those ends, I did the research so you don’t have to 😉

The Abstract

Dollar values from here on refer to the price-per-page (ppp) of RPGs. These RPGs include some if not extensive artwork that can serve to boost page counts and perceived value.

TLDR; In general, RPGs undervalue themselves. OSR (old-school revival) games – more concise (i.e. fewer) rules, less pre-generated content – can increase ppp by 25% vs. the broad market (super-sellers like Dungeons & Dragons not included here). The most ‘lucrative’ publications are game extensions – extra rules, adventures, tools, artwork, or features – that can run at or 30% more than OSR games.

If you price your RPG and related content between $.08 and $.10 per page, you are being reasonable. $.30 per page is really stretching it, but no product is sold for less than $.04 per page.

The Data Collection

I ran data for general games, OSR games, extensions / modules / add-on content, and my personal favorites. See The Collection Method section next for what the thoughts behind here:

GroupAverage PPPMedian PPP
General$.07$.08
OSR$.08$.10
Add-on$.10$.13
Faves$.08$.09
Popular RPG Average and Median PPP

Dropping the edges, it would seem that a price-per-page range of $.08 and $.10 is the best option for pricing an RPG PDF.

Tangentially, the data for average and median page counts and prices:

GroupAverage Page CountMedian Page Count
General299288
OSR217203
Add-on134112
Faves258288
Popular RPG Average and Median Page Count

Conclusions here say page count for a primary product ranges from 200 to 300 pages. Extensions should be about half the page count (give or take) of the primary product.

GroupAverage PriceMedian Price
General$20$21
OSR$18$15
Add-on$14$15
Faves$20$20
Popular RPG Average and Median Price

As for price, expect to price between $15 and $20 for the most well-received products.

Check the data for yourself in Google Sheets.

The Collection Method

To gather the data, I referenced Drive Thru RPG, “the largest RPG download store,” for highly rated (>80% positive reviews) page counts and price (rounded to the nearest 50-cents). All prices reflect the PDF versions of games, as those are required by Drive Thru – physical copies are not.

Numbers came from the “hottest” of: core-rulebooks, OSR games, game extensions / modules, and my own favorite games. Collection was made in chunks of the first ~30 and ~50 of the “hottest” lists to sanity-check the calculations were accurate.

I completely avoided the hottest game of them all: Dungeons & Dragons. I know that its price and page count and rating may be skewed for the sheer popularity of this godfather of RPGs.

Like D&D, some other data was excluded. Any price-per-page that far exceeded other ppp was excluded, though a comment has been left on the excluded page and price.

The ranges of prices are taken as the difference of the average and the median, pivoting around the average. The average was always less than the median, indicating that many games undervalue what they could sell themselves for reasons of market ignorance (this is speculation only).

–

Now you know how to price your RPG! This has certainly helped me determine what pricing and lengths I should be looking at.

Bonus observation: While going through content, I noticed that ppp was increased for creators who had a dedicated following, their “1000 True Fans.” Examples include Runehammer Games (YouTube, Drive Thru RPG) and Dungeon Craft/University (YouTube, Drive Thru RPG). Might be something to keep in mind for your own popularity ~

And cheers to that! Price your RPGs right and we will catch up next week.

The Real Values of Your Job

You get a wage, yet that is not all. What are the real values of your job? Or any job offer?

Base Pay

The hourly or salary numbers of the job.

This is a guarantee of value. Out of virtually all other values, this is the most fundamental because it is not a hypothetical. You will be paid this by law, otherwise the law is broken.

Additionally for hourly, though a person could expect HOURLY RATE x 40 HOURS, that may not be the case. Adjust accordingly, in that it may be 35 hours instead, or there is overtime pay on the regular – talk with your coworkers about these expectations.

Stock

AKA Options (more volatile for gains or losses) and RSUs (more guarantee, less risk). This is flexible value in an employer offers at a discount or pre-set rate.

For many in, say, the tech industry, this is the bread-and-butter of employment, the real value of their compensation. For pennies on the dollar, you can gain stock then sell it at a steep profit.

Be warned: Stock is fickle in that it can fall nearly as easily as it can rise (at least in recent years). What you may have banked as the cornerstone of your finances can become so much bitter ash.

Time Off

Sick days, vacation days, holidays. Each day is worth about .4% of Base Salary (1 8-hour day in 2000 annual working hours).

Not something to sniff at. These values can add a significant proportion to the overall value to a job, but be careful if anything is “unlimited” – these days have no value if not taken or are allowed to be taken (these instead have negative value as a lie from the employer).

Matches

Talking about the big one here – 401K matching. The employer will match dollar-for-dollar a 401K contribution.

Free money here. A very important value, though it is not offered everywhere and only works if you are able to. Keep an eye out on this!

Bonus

Annual performance, sales, commission – these can be substantial, or trivial. They can happen often, once a year, or not at all.

Whatever bonus gets offered (if any), take note and negotiate on this too!

Misc.

Largely subjective, include any other items you feel might be of value to you in your work. This bucket is mainly for values of a few hundred dollars, but could be worth a lot more.

Examples:

  • Commute Time (less is more! 0 is best)
  • Special Health Insurance Benefits (specifically of benefit to your upcoming year or lifestyle; you ought be getting basic health insurance regardless!)
  • Snacks
  • Gym Memberships
  • et al.

As with everything, a lot of these offerings only have value if you reap the value from them. If not using anything of benefit, it has no value to you and should not be included in the value of the job.

Experience?

You can’t even choke on experience, so it is of virtually no value here.

Can you gain training, networking, and exposure while on another’s dime? Sure, yet there still needs to be that “dime.”

Are some employers worth it? Perhaps. Big names, such as Google, Facebook, or Apple are all great names in virtually any field, while some banks or law firms would be great in their fields. Yet these employers are tiny compared to the vast swath of the broad market, where you are likely to be employed.

Experience is nice, but again, it cannot feed you.

Putting It All Together

Job Value = Base Pay + Stock* + Time Off + Matches + Bonus + Misc.**

*Stock is the number of shares given in a year multiplied by (market right now – rate given in the offering).
** Money is time – the more money you keep, the more time you will be giving your future self, so do not discount time savings as being worth a lot!

This will give you a dollar amount, the real value from the real values of your job.

Crypto – Ponzi Scheme?

Recently this year I started investing in crypto currencies (aka coins/tokens).

Yet, now that I pay more attention to the crypto marketplace, I cannot help but think, “is this a Ponzi Scheme?”

Let us discuss:

(Note that all numbers are being accessed on December 4th, 2021.)

Ponzi Schemes

The FBI defines these as criminal practices that “promise high financial returns or dividends not available through traditional investments” which “falls apart when the operator flees with all of the proceeds or when a sufficient number of new investors cannot be found”.

In short, Ponzi Schemes benefit first those who propose the ‘opportunity,’ second those that get into the scheme early to capitalize on later investors, and to anyone else, no benefit at all.

You either start the Ponzi Scheme, get in early, or play the victim to everyone who came before you.

Am I a sucker for a Ponzi Scheme?

Due Diligence

Though only doing this with ‘play’ money (dollars left after expenses and savings), I still do my homework on the range of value a coin might be worth in the future.

    • Does the coin have future general or environmental application?
    • Is the team experienced with MAST goals?
    • Is it staked (i.e. environmentally more viable than non-staked)?
    • Has the coin thought about its own economy with a plan to handle the downsides of fiat currencies?
    • Between the day-week-month-year changes in value of the currency, am I allowed to be contrarian with two or three decreased values in that timeframe?
    • And most importantly, is it not a meme coin (i.e. a community-hyped coin meant to “go to the moon” in value over a short period of time before dropping again)?

Depending on those results, I weigh my investments accordingly, adding a bit of ‘fun’ diversity to my portfolio (super-majorly weighted in stocks, which I understand better than crypto).

It is clear now by no means am I a “YOLO” investor, someone who throws caution to the wind for a stake in a gambling venture. I am skeptical, thorough, and inclined to a “hell no” if an investment is not a “hell yes” for me.

I would like to think I have avoided being duped, but yet…

State of the Market

It is an understatement to say the crypto market is volatile. A lot of that may be attributed to the ‘wild west’ nature of not just deregulation, but a complete absence of oversight on the trading habits and market changes of crypto.

Nothing is insured, nothing is guaranteed. As Stanford points out, that’s the point.

Yet while the goals of crypto leave open great opportunities for a truly democratic and transparent economic and record system, so too does it leave open great opportunities for opportunists to leveraged others’ trust and ignorance.

(Causal link to Tragedy of the Commons.)

One only has to rely on short-term recall on recent scams that, well, sound an awful lot like Ponzi Schemes:

Is There a Problem?

Even though according to Coin Market Cap there are only 265 out of 7933 coins (~3%) explicitly listed as memes, the immense speculation in other coins suggests that percentage is greater and not insignificant.

With income inequality getting worse, both ignorant speculators and smart-but-not-humble-enough investors are hoping to land a quick buck.

Yet, just as crypto lacks physical value, product, leadership, and for most coins a brand, most investors seem to be rudderless. With no end-goal in mind for their investments but to make more millions, folks speculate without an exit strategy in mind.

Even if due diligence is given and a person finds themselves on a “rocketship to the moon”, undue optimism is a common negative effect that causes a person to gamble their guaranteed golden parachute now for the exponentially lower probability for a second parachute later. More like the rocket explodes after being a “hodler” for “just one more day.” Then the investor can play the victim, decrying “bad luck” and the “paper hands” who sold too early and ruined everyone’s trip to the moon.

Still, this type of behavior is not unique. It is incredibly human. History has seen the dark effects of psyche when applied to wealth accumulation by any means other than trading work. Heck, dice as a form of gambling have been around since before the pyramids.

Getting out of work with high potential rewards is fundamental human behavior. Look no further than the stock market for speculation and rude economic schemes. Crypto is not unique in this regard.

Closing Thoughts

Crypto, though not unique in how it plays on human minds or the crimes that can be committed within its markets, crypto is unique in its unregulated status.

True, unregulated speculative ventures are virtually always acquired by central powers to crack down on cheating and to extract societal taxes from the exchange of wealth. Perhaps the same will become true for crypto someday.

However, as of now, while crypto can offer great rewards to those that create and get in early on a coin, the complete collapse of asset-less currencies stands crypto apart.

A fiat currency is backed by the production capacity and raw resources of a country. A stock virtually cannot be devalued to $0 because there are physical assets and human capital behind every ticker symbol. A crypto coin?

A crypto coin has nothing but promise. Even should a coin aim for great global benefits for many, the incentives in the market, as hot as it is now, is to get in early and run to the bank with the capital of those who get in late.

So is crypto as Ponzi Scheme?

…

Maybe.

Without regulation, the incentive is to ‘default’ on the system, the social trust of others, getting in early with promises, leaving early after the next few invest too.

With the goals of democratizing ownership in crypto, a coin has the potential to get above having the floor drop out from under it. Countries begin to back the coin, people exchange tangible goods or services through it, the creators relinquish control.

A few coins ought have achieved immunity from Ponzi Scheming. Huge quantities of coins and rampant speculation makes identifying those coins anything but easy.

–

*Lets out breath.*

Don’t listen to me. I spout my impressions and ideas all over this website. Do I know anything about money? No. It can be fun (and it is only human) to speculate sometimes 🙂

What are your conceptions of crypto? The strengths are praised everywhere – the interesting part is what downsides have you encountered?

Been burned by rockets to the moon yet? 🚀🔥 Or caught falling knives expecting ‘just the dip’? 🔪 Be careful you are not swept up or already caught in a Ponzi Scheme yourself 🤞

Take care of your finances, folks. Cheers to any profits!